I need your opinions.
I have always been known as the "rude" player that wont make a deal at my little local casino. I typically play a few of the $35 buy ins each month and they have a $100 buy in each month and a $200 buy in each month that I play. I do pretty well playing in these tourneys. They typically fill 5 tables and sometimes with some alternates.
I never make a deal. It is a standard to pay the bubble person their buy in back no matter what buy in tourney and 95% of the tourneys (That im not in of course) make a deal to even chop once it gets 3 handed or heads up. In some of the bigger buy in tourneys they will even make a chop 4 and 5 handed evenly.
I have never felt I it was in my best interest to make any of these deals, because I am very confident that at least 90% of the time I have a significant advantage over these local opponents due the overall lack of understanding on how to play short handed, and considering my overall understanding of the game and abilities to read my opponents.
However, recently I have been reconsidering my stance on this issue. These tournaments tend to be the type that everyone at the final table even the big chip leader has an extremely low "M". Usually the chip leader will have an "M" of around 5 and the rest will be in the 2-3 range. Considering this problem these tourneys usually have a lot more luck involved when it gets short handed than what I can often times control no matter how well I know my opponents.
The last 5 months I have been chip leader in the $200 tourney, but ended up taking no better than 4th. The same has been true of the last 4 months of the $100 buy ins with the exception of this last one I was short stack when we got 5 handed and of course finished 5th.
Do you think I should start making more of an effort to accept deals to increase my overall monthly income?
Do you think I am looking too far into the luck factor issues considering I have had a bad few months?
I would like to hear your ideas. I have no one else that I can have these type of discussions with. Thanks again Dash for this Blog.
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6 comments:
I personally Love making deals at the final table. But by then I am usually tired and ready to leave. I dont have that "have to win it" mentality. If the deal seems to be good for everyone at the table then I will eccept. Unless there is a dickhead at the table that I DO NOT want getting any more $ than they deserve. In that case I will hold out untill that person is gone then Im all for it!
I usually chop at the local homegame because all the tournament winners play cash afterwards & donk off their winnings. Ha!
Seriously though, when it turns into the all-in fest you describe, I'd take a chip equity split & give a little extra to the short stack if he/she balks. Your experience speaks for itself. When you M is 5 & three others have M of <3, their combined luck gives them +EV versus your skill.
Another option would bone up on the "Independent Chip Model" (ICM). You would probably do well since you make a lot of final tables & the others are clueless. You would be risking your stack more before the money. But the times that you do cash, you should have a dominating stack more often than you do now.
For me it depends on who's at the table, how long we've been playing, and what the potential payout would be. Earlier this year at The Borgata I was playing in their $200 buy in ($50K Guarantee) and made the final table. Going into the final table I was the slight chip leader, it was 2am, I drove 4 hours earlier that day to play the tournament and didn't have a hotel reservation. We made a 10-player deal where we chopped 10-ways. I was happy to take what amounted to 3rd place money and I drove back home. Ordinarily for me it really depends on the circumstances but I tend to chop with 2 or 3 players more so than not chopping at all.
Hey Deam, good question! Since i do considerably better live, I will volunteer some insight. Usually, as soon as they publish the payout, you should have a good idea if people will be inclined to chop or not. The standard is always paying 10% of players but they usually round that number down. And depending on the buy-in, that could make a difference. Also, even though 10% is the norm, some local casinos are not too keen on top-heavy structures. You know why? Cause Casinos WANT you to chop! They have tourneys to bring people in, but the faster it's over, the faster they can make money...in cash games. Tourneys are not profitable for them. Also, like you mentioned, for medium to low buyins (lets say <$500), the blind structure is usually real fast. To the point where one orbit is not even done by the time blinds go up. This creates the dreaded "nobody has an M higher than 10 when we get to FT". And also usually, the Qs are not far between...
I'll take last week's example: $300 buy-in, 50 ppl in, paid top 5 ($15000 prize pool). Their payout was 5k, 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k!!! What a joke! Anyways, when we got to final 5, Ms ranged from about 8 to about 3. I was 2nd in chips. Well, you can be sure that with a structure like that, as soon as we got to final 5, I said HOLD IT! Let's not be fools here, lets all take 3k and have a good day! Now, we had a bit of convincing to do for the chip leader...who acted all pissed (like he was guaranteed 1st right lol)but we eventually chopped it.
So all this to say:
1)Unless the structure is top heavy.
2)Unless you have an M good enough to play a while compared to others, I guess over 20 or so.
3)Unless movin up in the payout really changes your BR dramatically.
Unless all that: CHOP!
Let's not forget that unless you're playin for glory, and I don't think daily local casino tourneys will get you there :-), that ultimately, we're playing to make money. And chopping in these situations, is GUARANTEED money.
I'm sure you've watched Dead or NoDeal before right? How many times have you seen someone refuse $125000 because $1M was still on the board?
Slam that buzzer and DEAL :-)
Good luck!
(anyway, that's my 2 cents...wtf do i know lol)
Great post and great feedback.
I totally agree with the guys replies too.
I have an example from playing live last night.
21 RUNNERS 3 PLACES PAID.
1ST = $600, 2ND = $400, 3RD = 200.
4 players remained, M's are low, with all 4 players being pretty even in chips.
the 4 guys were asked if they wanted to do an even chop ($300 each)
Personally I dont like chops but the it makes total sense when there is little play left at the end of a tourney.
But look at iot this way, if I take 4th I'm -$300, 3rd -$100, 2nd is only +$100 and 1st +$300.
you are guaranteed more money by chopping than 3rd pays, with NO risk.
Even if you place 2nd, you're only profitting by $100.
I look at the risk reward at bubble stage of any tourney but I must say it's usually favourable to chop.
I appreciate the input everyone. I think from now on I will take more consideration when it comes to chops. I have no opportunity to make chip equity chops at my local casino (Everyone is too stubborn) its either even chop or no chop. Also I always loved the tight play when there were no chops because players would try moving up the pay scale. From now on though I am going to take advantage of the chop instead of risking the luck involved with the LOW M play.
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