Hi guys,
I was wondering if I could get any ones opinion on what is going on in debo's head here?
I know he's one of the crew and a pro.
What I'm looking for is what is a pro's take on this hand.
If this was some random I'd understand. I'm looking for an idea of what a pro thinks and his logic.
Its a pretty strange hand and wondered if I played it correctly. I don't think I played the hand that well or badly but I'll post you my logic after you give me feedback on what hand you have me on here.
Put yourself in debo's shoes.
Hand #58383607-101 at S80Kguar_9pm-013 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)Started at 05/Nov/08 22:58:56
neitman is at seat 0 with 4515.
DrunkSavage is at seat 1 with 1900.
cowhead72 is at seat 2 with 1310.
debo34 is at seat 3 with 2290.
hotsas is at seat 4 with 4135.
Riggsb14 is at seat 5 with 3215.
Freshprince08 is at seat 6 with 2535.
manderbutt is at seat 7 with 2845.
Rsaleh is at seat 8 with 4250.
Quassi is at seat 9 with 5850.
The button is at seat 5. Freshprince08 posts the small blind of 100. manderbutt posts the big blind of 200.
neitman: -- -- DrunkSavage: -- -- cowhead72: -- -- debo34: 3h 3d hotsas: -- -- Riggsb14: -- -- Freshprince08: -- -- manderbutt: -- -- Rsaleh: -- -- Quassi: -- --
Pre-flop: Rsaleh folds. Quassi folds. neitman folds. DrunkSavage folds. cowhead72 raises to 500. debo34 calls. hotsas folds. Riggsb14 folds. Freshprince08 folds. manderbutt folds.
Flop (board: 6d Jc 7d): cowhead72 checks. debo34 checks.
Turn (board: 6d Jc 7d 6s): cowhead72 bets 350. debo34 raises to 700
I'll post the end of the hand after I get some feedback, I have an idea of what he's thinking and what he's got me on but I'm looking for opinions for self improvement.
Thanks in advance guys.
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10 comments:
I don't have enough info on your table image at the time, or his recent action (what kind of image is he trying to portray). Without any of this info here is what I think. Your raise preflop in my opinion shows quite a bit of strength. You only have an M of a little over 4 and you are out of position. To me this looks like you are looking for action. If you had a hand that 33 has beat right now then I think you would have shoved and given yourself the best chance to win the hand right now. This is what I would do and this is what I would think you would do (Based off some past experience with you). His flat call means he is trying to put you on AK or AQ. Once everyone else folds and you go to the flop heads up he now has position on you and will try to take advantage of it. You check to him on the flop and now he may think one of two things. One - he has the best hand and you have two overs and if one of your two overs don't come you will still make a delayed continuation bet on the turn based off his check on the flop in position and then he can reraise and get all your chips because you will be committed no matter what on the turn if you bet (I don't like this thought process because once again if I think I have the best hand and I don't have enough chips to try sophisticated moves, I will want to move in, because I want to give myself the best chance to win and take the pot right now, but then again it is still early and he is trying to build his stack he isnt to worried about survival it dosent seem). Two - he is still unsure what you have, you could be slow playing an overpair or you could still call with two overs if he pushes considering you still have two cards to come. Neither of you are deep enough stack wise for him to make an informational bet here. So he checks to see what happens on the turn. Not a safe card hits and you bet 1/4 the pot. This is either a small value bet or you are making the delayed continuation bet which at this point he goes with his original read he had preflop and puts you on AK or AQ and moves here. Now I am very curious to see what you had. This all probably sounds really stupid which is why I am not a pro.
Moooooo!
With the info available, here's what I think...for what it's worth (Or lets pretend I'm Debo :-)
Long analysis that could be total crap but it's fun :-)
1)4 people folded before you, so you acted first.
2)With an M of 4, everyone expects you to shove if you have a good hand here.
3)Info that I dont have is why you have a M so low. Lost a pot or you let it dwindle that low which indicates playin tight?
So, you don't shove, you raise to 500 (2.5x raise) leaving you with 810. Well...what's that about? You're essentially committing yourself here. Is that what you want....or want ppl to think?
Since I don't know if you've been tight or lost...
a)You dont want to shove a drawin hand like some broadway and think there's potential to steal the blinds.
b)You have a superstrong hand and want people to come over the top.
c)You have a small to mid pair <99 and dont want to commit so you make a defensive raise hoping to see the flop hoping to shove if texture's good.
Considering Debo's stack size, by flat calling, he's saying to the other players: I got this....raise me if you dare. But he pretty much wants to see the flop and thinks even if he doesn't hit that if you show weekness, he can outplay you after flop having position on you.
So right now, lets see the range I put you on for a) b) and c)
a)AJ-AT-KQ-KJ-KT-QJ-QT,JT (I think AK or AQ is a shove preflop)
b)AA-KK-QQ (I think JJ-TT-99 are also a shove preflop)
c)88-77-66-55-44-33-22
So flop is 6d Jc 7d and you check.
Hmmm...ok...with a board of flush and str8 draw, checking shows weekness. You don't have enough of a stack left to any influence on his action even with a check-shove. I think that with 1300 in the pot, even a set needs to be shoved here. You would give him 2.6 to 1 on a call. So, according to that:
a)AJ-KJ-QJ and JT would be shoves on flop so I take them out. AT-KQ-KT-QT are checks.
b)AA-KK and QQ are all shoves on flop so i take them out also.
c)77 and 66 would be shoves and probably 88 also. That leaves 55-44-22 which you would probably check, not liking that flop at all.(33 has to be left out).
So what's left in the hands that you would check? AT-KQ-KT-QT-55-44-22. Well, my 33 beat 5 of those 7 hands. I'm probably ahead here. But just in case you're not shoving a flush draw if I bet, i want to see another card.
Turn is 6s. Wonderful card. Notice that there's no way in hell that this card helped you. So if I thought my 33 was ahead on the flop, they're still good now.
Now you bet 350 in a 1300 pot and have 460 left. I think I'm good, so I raise just enough to make you shove the rest.
Now tell me you did shove, he called and you showed 55 and he sucked out with another 3 on river! lol
I don't know bud, I gave it a shot...it's a game of so many unknowns...I think you'll all get different answers.
ok guys here's the result.
thanks for the feedback.
I know I missed out some info on what had gone on earlier at the table.
I had been fairly tight but lost half my stack about 10 hands previous to this one.
ok, the hand in question.
Right or wrong I was willing to take the risk of busting in order to get maximum value for the hand.
there had been a lot of folding to opening raises.
I had AA by the way.
I thought about shoving but the play was very tight and figured I'd try and get someone to come along.
My logic once debo called was that although risky I wanted to shove AK or AQ into his head.
pretty safe flop although it contained a flush draw I figured I'd check it to him and see what he did.
He checked back and the flush didnt develope on the turn.
I knew when the 6 came on the turn that I was now ahead but didnt want to blow him off the hand.
I was willing to take a big risk in order to get back into contention.
I bet 350 on the turn thinking he knows the 6 is a blank for me and if he had a pocket pair he may have me on AK or AQ and I'm now taking a stab at the pot.
I think I should have min bet the turn (200) I'd still be pot comitted but 200 looks much weaker than a bet of 350.
Anyways as you know he raised I shove the extra 100 or so chips.
river 3 and I'm out of the tourney.
I didnt post this to moan at a bad beat.
The reason I posted it was to see if I played the hand ok. good/bad or whatever.
I was wondering if he had me on a big Ace.
As short as my stack was I was just curious to know if my logic ans the way I played the hand was ok.
Thanks again for the opinions guys.
In my post I meant to say a "a Non Scare card hit the turn" or "a safe card hit the turn" and instead I screwed up and said "not a safe card hit the turn". That was definately a safe card for both of you. well Played. You may not have had the beat if you pushed the action on the flop, but you had two ways to play it, either win the small pot (Survival)or try to win a big pot (Chip accumulation) and you tried winning a big pot, and should have just got unlucky.
Somehow I had the feeling it would end like that :-(
Deamein pretty much said it all right there. You're the short stack and been prayin to get AA for 10 hands and now you got them...you're heart's racing and you want to doubleup and not just get those blinds.
You had 3 choices:
a)Limp and hope someone raises so you can shove.
b)Make a small raise hopin for some re-raise.
c)Shove prayin for a call.
I think you're so low in chips that I would take risks in order to get max value for the hand. So based on that, I think limping wouldve been my #1 choice. If you get them cracked, that's poker. What you did, choice #2. And a shove choice #3.
One thing we'll never know is if Debo's call of your preflop raise made some other people fold behind him not wanting to get involved for what essentially could be all of Debo's stack. But if you shove preflop, Debo may fold and you may get called by some broadway further down. But that speculation.
If you limp, I think Debo might limp as well and you might get a few more in there.
Anyways, in the end, you can't knock yourself down about your play. You had 3 choices, any of them had good reasons to be used. You had to choose and go with it. But no matter what you do, you knew you were going all the way as soon as you saw those AA so try to get the most chips in there and hope for the best. The usual worse happened...and you're out with AA. Not the first, won't be the last.
I think I wouldve shoved on flop but thats debatable.
Take care
Instant first thought is your bet from early position with low M says u have something but as you only raised min, prob not a premium pocket pair.
Your not betting the flop prob suggested to Debo that the flop didn't help you but Debo isnt sure and if he bet the flop, a lot of people with overs would call so he wants to see the turn b4 commiting more chips.
He is not likely to put you on say A6 etc, but the J may have hit and being short stacked, if you had made your pair with the J you certainly would want to take the pot as early as poss to prevent getting drawn out by a A, K or Q on the turn or river. Therefore he prob figured that you didnt have a J and its unlikely you would raise out of position pre with a 6 or a 7.
With the turn being a low card and your bet being low, and based on the above, I think he thought you prob had missed and were trying to steal the pot.
Providing you didnt have AA or KK and it's not a "Brag Post", my best guess is you had overs and folded to his raise. If on the other hand you reraised, he would have folded.
If you did hit the J on the flop, you played it very dangerously - esp given your short stack. If you had say A7 or A6, you should'nt have been in the hand to begin with.
As regards Debo calling your bet pre with 33, I can only conclude that it was a fairly tight table, which would add some weight to the above.
A further consideration is he has position on you and a much greater stack and M, and he knows that you know he is a Pro and so expects you to be wary of banging heads with him.
Even pros make mistakes...
Debo plays this hand very poorly.
With 10 BB's and 4 players left to act behind him, this is an easy shove for him to hope he is in a race and isolate you HU, by calling you he is giving a great price to the 4 left to act to call with KQ, J10, QJ and on and on, all of which reduce the value of his hand greatly. His play here is very poor.
As for raising to 500 with 5BB's, I don't like this play either, everyone expects you to shove a VERY wide range here so if anyone has a decent hand they will call you. By making it 500, you are doing 2 things, 1)telegraphing your hand, and 2) opening up the possibility that you could be playing the pot vs multiple opponents and you don't want that.
Just shove your AA.
The other option for him is to fold since you have telegraphed your hand, screaming that you want action... I fold my 33 here.
Flat calling with 33 here is just bad IMO.
.what Nutz said unless its his 500 raise. Then I flat and push :) flop.
But in reality you played it as your mind saw it /// got someone to chase with a losing hand and got unlucky.......
When I first answered this post, I hadn't yet read your answer. You also hadn't said if it was a tight or loose table, but I assumed it was tight.
Obviously there are many ways to view this hand. But with any big pair you:
A) Don't want a multiway pot
B) Want to take the pot down as early as possible - letting hand go to river is very risky.
By playing it the way you did, you greatly increased the risk and IMO the mistake was not shoving after the flop. If you had, I reckon that Debo would have folded and you would have increased your stack by 50%.
Having said that, given Debo's relatively small stack size, I'm suprised he called pre. If it was me, I possibly might call from the blinds but in a mid position with 4 more yet to act, I'd definately have folded my 33.
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