Heres an interesting situation I found myself in recently. Id be interested to know what you think the correct play is, and why.
It is 2.5 hours into a $10 tourney (9 seats p/table).
1150 players started and we have just entered the money.
Blinds are 600/300.
Average tourney stack size is about 14ooo.
About 4 hands ago I was moved to this table and I am now on the button with 3500 chips (the smallest stack on the table). As yet I dont really have any read on my opponents apart from the Blinds, who were both on my table earlier and whilst I got on well with the Small Blind, the Big Blind was quite abusive towards me.
The Big Blind has 12,000 chips and is quite an agressive player.
The Small Blind is a tight player with about 4800 chips.
I have 3500 chips and get dealt AQ off. All fold to me.
What should I do - CALL, RAISE, or PUSH ? And what do you think the logic for each option is?
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10 comments:
Shoving any two short stacked is +EV! especially into the blinds. Remeber K high is favored over any random hand. If your in the money and short you are basically dead money. Be sure though to pick your spots, obvsly shoving into the blinds are much better, it's easiler to shove a weak hand than to call with one. Moreover you have to take into consideration your chip stack in relation to the blinds. Bottom line is, if you are short you only have one more...shove and gamble.
Dash
This is an instant shove. The ace figures to be the best hand with two left players to act. You just have a smidge of fold equity left, and there is nearly 25% of your stack in the middle already. If you had said you're on the money bubble, that makes it a much tougher spot. But in the money with 6 BB, I think it's a clear shove. You'd have to figure the worst case scenario is you're racing or 60/40'ing for a double up. And that's just fine when you're that short.
Shove immediately.. It's in God's hands now. lol a.k.a "push and pray"
An M of less than 4 now and you get AQ? Shove the damn thing!
And since the BB seems to hate your gut, he might call ya with way worse...
Thank you for all the replys, and yes, usually in this situation pushing is basic and obviously that is what I would normally do.
However, in this particular circumstance, I did not push.
Because the Big blind dislikes me and has a huge stack, if I had pushed, the Small blind (with a stack similar to mine) probably would have folded and the Big would probably have called with almost any 2 cards. Because I am drawing, this would be putting my game on the line with a coin flip. Not good.
Instead, I reasoned that if I only call, the Small will probably put call for 300, the Big will see 2 people in the pot and decide that stealing isn't a good idea and then check. In otherwords, I WANTED to keep the Small in the hand so not to give the Big an opportunity to bully, and so prevent my having to take a huge coin-flip risk which could result in my loosing everything - after all, I wouldnt be happy after 2.5 hours of play with only winning a minor place prize of like $16.
Playing it this way I get to see the flop cheaply, and if I pair my A or Q, im probably in good shape to push. Plus I am on the button so I have position. If on the other hand either of the blinds raise or push pre flop, then with AQ, of course I will commit, but I prefer to avoid commiting my entire tourney with just a drawing hand. Assuming no one has AA, KK, QQ or AK then im a 64-40 favorite, if they hold any other pocket pair, i'm a 60-40 dog. Not terrible odds but im still drawing and even if i call, and the Small calls and Big checks, and I then miss the flop and have to fold, I still have an M of over 3 - so I have a bit of time yet.
No, given the above and particularly because the Big dislikes me, I believe that just calling was the smart play.
"No, given the above and particularly because the Big dislikes me, I believe that just calling was the smart play."
Calling here is NEVER the right play, you are letting the SB and the BB come in and out draw you for free. AQ is an INSTA shove, Folded to you on the button with 5 or 6 BB's (and in the $) you shove any 2 cards, it is BASIC poker strategy. You need to double up NOW or bust, if you wait and double up, you will still be way to short on chips.
Thanks GofNutz88, I completely understand that pushing is basic strategy at this point and I don't think I could be described as a mouse!
If I thought there was any chance of the Big folding to a push, then I would have gone all in. Instead, I knew that if I push, he would definaltly call and the hand will go to the river with me on a draw and possibly with 3 of us in the hand, which with AQ would not be ideal.
The point in playing it the way I did was that if I had shoved, I would have expected the Small to fold and Big to call with any 2 cards simply because he dislikes me. If this happens and the hand goes to the river, I am in effect putting my entire tourney on a near coin-flip. (Bear in mind that I am only just ITM and after paying $11 to enter, 2.5 hrs of time, I dont want to come away with only $16 or $5 profit, i'd prefer to work move up the money a bit!) AQ is a good drawing hand but at that point I had no chips in the pot and an M of 4.
By simply calling, the Small is likely to put the other 300 in pot (which was exactly what I wanted him to do) and Big will be unlikely to try to steal. This way I get to see flop cheaply, and if I miss the flop I have not put my entire tourney on the line AND I can get out of it and still have an M of just over 3. If I hit the flop, I can bet, and I reckon I might still get a call from the Big. Also, even if I do push and force a fold by both blinds, I take a big risk to only gain 900 chips (extra 25% stack size or 1 more M), but if I put all my chips in and miss, there is a very good chance I may be out of the tourney. Having said that, if anyone raised or pushed, with AQ I would certainly have called. I just didnt want to put my entire tourney on the line unless I had to.
Of course, by just calling there is the risk that either blinds may out draw me but after the flop they will act before me and I can still fold if I need to.
On balance, I believe that the risk of pushing pre flop (knowing im going to get a call when I only have a drawing hand) did not justify the small gain.
The end result was the flop came Q85 rainbow, the Small checked, the Big bet 1500, I raised all in for 2900, the Small folded and the Big called. Big showed 99. Turn was 8, River a J.
Slightly unusual way to play the hand I agree, but had I pushed pre and missed, I'd have been out.
If I know the big is calling with any 2 I definately shove, while AQ is not a made hand it is 65% vs a random hand. When you are short in a tourney and have a 65% chance to double up, you take it all day long. I am happy to take a 40-60 in this spot just to try to double before the blinds hit me again.
Just and aside, if I had a big stack here and raised AQ, and the BB reraised me, I would play for my tournament with AQ, the reason being that I am in a steal position, so I am going to get played back at by a large number of hands that AQ is ahead of. In the past I would have folded thinking I didn't want to put my tourney life on the line with AQ, but after having a very good pro anaylze my game and give me private lessons, he said that is way to tight for todays game and he is right. Many times my opp has A10, AJ, 33 and on and on.
For me the key here is your stack size, you HAVE to double up now to give yourself a chance to go deep.
If you limp here and the flop doesn't hit you and you fold, then you go another orbit or 2 getting rags, you are done.
The result worked for you here, but in poker you cannot be results oriented, you have to make the right decisions and let the results take care of themself.
Anyway, it worked out for you, but not wanting to play for your life with AQ vs the blinds when you have 5BB's is just worng. IMO.
Insta shove.+Normal raise commits half your stack. You either want the blinds....by a steal(a real plus cuase you are drawing)...since it increases your stack by 35% or you want to race and you are probably ahead or flipping. BB would still have to think twice before calling your stack ATC and That is the strategy you want.
Thank you for all your replys.
Basically, my thinking in this specific situation was "what reaction do I want". Because I knew that if I push, the Small would fold and the Big (who has me covered by a factor of 4) would call with literally ATC and the hand would go to the river. If he has a pocket pair or AK, i'm a dog and I must hit or I lose and am out. If he has ATC, and he hits one of them, i'm also probably out. Because I KNEW I could not force a fold, and even though the odds are in my favour and pushing is +EV, by pushing I would effectively be putting my tourney on a near coin flip.
Usually when you push in this situation (and when short stacked I normally do) there is a very high chance that both blinds will fold, or if you get called, you still have a good hand and don't mind so much. But when you remove any possibility of forcing a fold, pushing becomes a less attractive play. After all, with AQ on the button, the reaction you really want is to take the blinds unopposed and whilst the odds are slightly in your favour against ATC and pushing is +EV, racing is still not ideal.
In addition, by playing it the way I did, I was only commiting 600 to see the flop and if I missed, I could get out and still have 2900 chips (M of 3) with 7 more hands before the blinds. If however I hit (because this guy was very aggressive and very weak), I was pretty sure I could push post-flop, he would think I was bluffing and he would call, and then providing my TPTK held, I would double up.
Because I KNEW pushing pre would not force a fold, and because of the above, pushing pre-flop became a much less attractive option than it would normally be.
That is the reason I played the hand the way I did and I believe that in this somewhat unusual situation it was a better play than pushing pre-flop.
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