Strategy for the Steps

Ok, so here’s the thing, I noticed a bunch of us are grinding up the Steps in hope of catchin that eluding 12k wsop package.

But the question is : what is the best strategy to make it?

I submit to you this very scientific analysis lol

First off, I use the axiom which is that it’s impossible (well, in mathematical probability, if you’re 99 to 1 against something, it’s impossible) to win the Step10 using only Step1s to start.

Then I asked myself, how many Step10s I would need to play to make sure I would win my wsop package. I figured 4 would be a good number ( I figure 3 for any SnG but since this is Step10, playing level and stress would be high so I would need 1 more. Then, the following question is, how many Step9s would I need to get to play 4 Step10s? So from there I figure I need 3 for every level. Which means I was rapidly seeing I was facing a power of 3 function.

Then I had to consider the fact that from Step1 to Step9, I don’t need to win it to move on up. Also, in all the steps (apart from Step10), I would get tickets to replay the same level or go down 1 or 2 steps even if I dont make top 2.

So based on that, I figured instead of a power of 3 function, I was closer to a power of 2 function. So the real thing had to be somewhere in between. Let’s look at the best scenario :

To get 4 Step10s, I would need 8 Step9s. For 8 Step9s, I would need 16 Step8s and so on. Now, if I apply this through all levels, I would get :

4 Step10s
8 Step9s
16 Step8s
32 Step7s
64 Step6s
128 Step5s
256 Step4s
512 Step3s
1024 Step2s
2048 Step1s

Now unless you’re suicidal, I don’t think anyone is willing to play 2048 Step1 donkfests!!!

But then, which step should we start at? Well, then it’s all about your bankroll. Let’s look at the amounts involved :

4 Step10s = $9400.00
8 Step9s = $6400.00
16 Step8s = $4320.00
32 Step7s = $3108.80
64 Step6s = $2070.40
128 Step5s = $1408.00
256 Step4s = $826.88
512 Step3s = $563.20
1024 Step2s = $348.16
2048 Step1s = $225.28

Now remember this is based on a best case scenario of a power of 2. If you have no patience or skill, like Cowhead for instance lol (ok buddy, cheap shot!), then the amounts might be a lot higher.

So personnally, I’ve targeted Step4s and would not play anything lower. So far, I’m stuck at Step8 and getting ammo with a bunch of lower steps. So far, I’m right on track with those numbers….will it work? Probly not lol

Good luck to yall with this…

Your Math guru,
FrankyBgood
PS : Latest News…UB just sent us a curve ball cause they just created a Step7A…for which the top prize is a seat in the WSOP 50 package, worth $530. So the question is this : is it easier and a better EV to play the steps in order to get this Step7A and then have a better shot in the 50-seat giveaway? I think so…especially since trying that a few times can give you $530 TDs for every multiple win…which in the end, might be even better! Only thing left to know is if people will actually play the Step7A or will they keep it to play up to Step10?